VIZ <- RR_0 %>% 
  filter(jahr %in% 2014:2023, (sex == "m" & alt == 65) | (sex == "f" & alt == 64)) %>% 
  select(- pen_c)

ggplot(VIZ, aes(x = jahr, y = pen, col = as.factor(alt), shape = sex, group = interaction(alt, sex))) +
  geom_line() +
  geom_shadowpoint() +
  facet_grid(nat ~ dom, labeller = label_both)

crit <- "lik"
bo <- "both"

MOD <- VIZ %>% 
  filter(dom == "ch") %>% 
  as_tsibble(key = c(sex, nat, dom, alt), index = jahr) %>% 
  model(
    # com = combination_model(
    #   ets = ETS(pen ~ season("N"), opt_crit = crit, bounds = bo),
    #   arm = ARIMA(pen ~ PDQ(0, 0, 0)),
    #   cmbn_args = list(weights = "inv_var")
    ARIMA(pen)
    )
    

forecast(MOD, h = "16 years") %>% 
  autoplot()
